中國經濟複蘇基礎還需夯實

    在(zai)金(jin)融(rong)危(wei)機(ji)尚(shang)未(wei)見(jian)底(di)，中(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)複(fu)蘇(su)基(ji)礎(chu)亟(ji)需(xu)夯(hang)實(shi)的(de)情(qing)勢(shi)下(xia)
，宏(hong)觀(guan)經(jing)濟(ji)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)下(xia)一(yi)步(bu)應(ying)在(zai)鞏(gong)固(gu)現(xian)有(you)複(fu)蘇(su)成(cheng)果(guo)的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上(shang)，著(zhe)力(li)提(ti)振(zhen)實(shi)體(ti)經(jing)濟(ji)
，切(qie)實(shi)檢(jian)討(tao)政(zheng)策(ce)執(zhi)行(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)的(de)一(yi)些(xie)偏(pian)離(li)
，並(bing)在(zai)經(jing)濟(ji)基(ji)本(ben)麵(mian)穩(wen)固(gu)之(zhi)後(hou)適(shi)時(shi)微(wei)調(tiao)財(cai)貨(huo)政(zheng)策(ce)。
　　在美歐和日本為擺脫經濟負增長而殫精竭慮之時
，中國主要依靠積極的財政政策和適度寬鬆的貨幣政策
，使宏觀經濟在“熱啟動”的基礎上邁上了複蘇通道。上半年7.1％的GDP增zeng速su足zu以yi傲ao視shi主zhu要yao經jing濟ji大da國guo。當dang然ran，主zhu流liu經jing濟ji學xue家jia們men盡jin管guan可ke以yi嘲chao笑xiao中zhong國guo天tian量liang投tou資zi的de邊bian際ji利li潤run率lv實shi在zai不bu高gao。但dan在zai危wei機ji深shen重zhong的de非fei常chang時shi期qi，廣guang大da市shi場chang主zhu體ti最zui為wei關guan注zhu的de還hai是shi眼yan下xia不bu可ke替ti代dai的deGDP增(zeng)長(chang)。沒(mei)有(you)增(zeng)長(chang)
，何(he)來(lai)經(jing)濟(ji)信(xin)心(xin)？因(yin)此(ci)，在(zai)充(chong)分(fen)肯(ken)定(ding)既(ji)有(you)財(cai)政(zheng)與(yu)貨(huo)幣(bi)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)即(ji)期(qi)效(xiao)應(ying)之(zhi)時(shi)，我(wo)們(men)完(wan)全(quan)應(ying)該(gai)對(dui)決(jue)策(ce)層(ceng)的(de)宏(hong)觀(guan)調(tiao)控(kong)水(shui)準(zhun)投(tou)下(xia)信(xin)任(ren)一(yi)票(piao)。中(zhong)國(guo)決(jue)策(ce)者(zhe)在(zai)麵(mian)臨(lin)重(zhong)大(da)經(jing)濟(ji)危(wei)機(ji)時(shi)所(suo)展(zhan)現(xian)的(de)嫻(xian)熟(shu)掌(zhang)控(kong)技(ji)巧(qiao)一(yi)點(dian)也(ye)不(bu)輸(shu)給(gei)國(guo)際(ji)同(tong)行(xing)。
　　複蘇基礎亟需夯實
　　我wo們men在zai樂le見jian經jing濟ji邁mai向xiang複fu蘇su通tong道dao之zhi時shi
，絕jue不bu應ying回hui避bi依yi然ran嚴yan峻jun的de經jing濟ji形xing勢shi。中zhong國guo依yi靠kao投tou資zi單dan引yin擎qing強qiang拉la經jing濟ji回hui暖nuan是shi冒mao著zhe經jing濟ji失shi衡heng加jia劇ju以yi及ji資zi產chan價jia格ge泡pao沫mo滋zi生sheng危wei險xian的de。中zhong國guo經jing濟ji早zao已yi內nei外wai失shi衡heng，各ge級ji各ge地di政zheng府fu長chang期qi以yi來lai對dui投tou資zi和he出chu口kou的de偏pian好hao事shi實shi上shang犧xi牲sheng了le10年nian左zuo右you的de經jing濟ji轉zhuan型xing時shi機ji。而er鑒jian往wang知zhi來lai的de反fan思si告gao訴su我wo們men，沒mei有you一yi個ge國guo家jia可ke以yi在zai愈yu益yi開kai放fang與yu聯lian動dong的de競jing爭zheng世shi界jie中zhong一yi直zhi作zuo為wei一yi個ge例li外wai繼ji續xu免mian受shou外wai來lai的de衝chong擊ji，沒mei有you一yi個ge大da國guo能neng在zai增zeng長chang結jie構gou失shi衡heng的de情qing況kuang下xia保bao持chi經jing濟ji的de持chi續xu良liang性xing發fa展zhan。如ru果guo說shuo，證zheng券quan市shi場chang上shang半ban年nian超chao過guo60％以上的反彈是建立在去年超過70％的深幅下挫背景之下
，且有貨幣政策的推動、經濟複蘇的強烈預期以及監管改進等客觀因素
；那麼房地產行業急速形成的泡沫以及隨時可能麵臨破裂的危險卻是危害經濟複蘇的不定時炸彈。對此，決策層不可不防。
　　另一方麵，經濟複蘇的質量和基礎都有許多亟待改進之處。誠然
，國有及國有控股企業應該也可以擔當經濟複蘇重任，但占GDP總量60％以上並創造80％yishangxinzengjiuyegangweideminyingqiye，nengfouzouchumuqiankunjingjinermaixiangquanmianfusu，caishihengliangjingjifusujichushifouwengudezhongyaozhibiao。shangbanniandejingjishujuxianshi，jinguanyilanzijingjicijijihuadedabufenxindaitouxiangleguoyoujiguoyoukongguqiye
，danqichanshengdetouzixiaolvyiranhendi。liru，6月份
，規模以上工業增加值同比增長了10.7％，將一季度的5.1％拉升至二季度的9.1％。但是以經濟類型來劃分，國有及國有控股企業僅增長了1.7％
，外商及港澳台投資企業增幅為1.2％，集體企業和股份製企業分別增長了5.9％和9.4％，zhebiaominggongyezengjiazhidezengchanglaiyuanbushiqianliangleiqiye
，ershidaikuanbeishouqishideneizifeiguoyouqiye。yinci
，zhengfudeguanzhujiaodianyingshishizhuanyidaoguangdaminyingqiyeshenshang。bucuo
，zhongguojingjiyaozaiquanqiushuaituilangchaozhonglvxianshangan，dangranxuyaodashoubitouziyu“國家隊”進jin場chang，但dan也ye不bu能neng離li開kai民min營ying資zi本ben特te別bie是shi中zhong小xiao民min營ying資zi本ben的de草cao根gen性xing責ze任ren擔dan當dang。為wei此ci
，各ge級ji政zheng府fu和he金jin融rong機ji構gou理li應ying積ji極ji創chuang造zao條tiao件jian

，切qie實shi降jiang低di民min營ying資zi本ben參can與yu產chan業ye振zhen興xing的de準zhun入ru門men檻kan，消xiao除chu對dui中zhong小xiao民min營ying企qi業ye的de信xin貸dai歧qi視shi，集ji各ge方fang之zhi力li共gong度du時shi艱jian。
　　至於政府和市場熱望的消費增長，上半年能夠為經濟增長貢獻53.4％
、拉動GDP增長3.8gebaifendian，yijingbucuole。jingjijuecezuijihuideshihushineishengxingyinsuerjinpingxianxianglaizuochufuzuoyongkenenghenmingxiandejuece。jinri，youcaijingguanyuanzhichu，zhongguojingjizhengcetiaozhengdezuiyouxuanzeshikuodaxiaofei。dantakenenghushileyigeshishi，najiushi，zaishebaotixibujianquan，chengxiangputongjuminshouruzengchanghuanman，qiepinfuchajuchixukuodadengzhuduoyueshutiaojianmianqian，yiweiqiangtiaokuodaneixushenzhi“引誘”百姓超前消費，對經濟複蘇來說無異於飲鴆止渴。因此

，類似家電下鄉、汽qi車che以yi舊jiu換huan新xin補bu貼tie這zhe種zhong低di水shui準zhun的de消xiao費fei刺ci激ji措cuo施shi還hai是shi能neng收shou回hui就jiu收shou回hui。廣guang大da消xiao費fei群qun體ti需xu要yao的de是shi如ru何he解jie除chu他ta們men大da膽dan消xiao費fei的de後hou顧gu之zhi憂you，而er非fei小xiao修xiu小xiao補bu的de轉zhuan移yi支zhi付fu。
　　政策執行力需檢討
　　決(jue)策(ce)層(ceng)關(guan)於(yu)經(jing)濟(ji)形(xing)勢(shi)的(de)判(pan)斷(duan)是(shi)準(zhun)確(que)的(de)，由(you)此(ci)作(zuo)出(chu)的(de)決(jue)策(ce)也(ye)是(shi)很(hen)有(you)前(qian)瞻(zhan)性(xing)的(de)
，隻(zhi)是(shi)政(zheng)策(ce)執(zhi)行(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)經(jing)常(chang)會(hui)出(chu)現(xian)結(jie)果(guo)背(bei)離(li)初(chu)衷(zhong)的(de)扭(niu)曲(qu)。去(qu)年(nian)底(di)的(de)中(zhong)央(yang)經(jing)濟(ji)工(gong)作(zuo)會(hui)議(yi)的(de)初(chu)衷(zhong)，是(shi)在(zai)保(bao)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)同(tong)時(shi)加(jia)快(kuai)結(jie)構(gou)調(tiao)整(zheng)，以(yi)實(shi)現(xian)經(jing)濟(ji)戰(zhan)略(lve)轉(zhuan)型(xing)。也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)說(shuo)

，保(bao)增(zeng)長(chang)隻(zhi)是(shi)工(gong)具(ju)價(jia)值(zhi)，調(tiao)結(jie)構(gou)以(yi)實(shi)現(xian)經(jing)濟(ji)轉(zhuan)型(xing)才(cai)是(shi)中(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)濟(ji)持(chi)續(xu)發(fa)展(zhan)之(zhi)根(gen)本(ben)。遺(yi)憾(han)的(de)是(shi)
，有(you)關(guan)部(bu)委(wei)以(yi)及(ji)各(ge)地(di)方(fang)政(zheng)府(fu)在(zai)政(zheng)策(ce)執(zhi)行(xing)過(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)片(pian)麵(mian)強(qiang)調(tiao)保(bao)增(zeng)長(chang)之(zhi)重(zhong)要(yao)性(xing)。其(qi)結(jie)果(guo)，信(xin)貸(dai)投(tou)放(fang)一(yi)發(fa)不(bu)可(ke)收(shou)
，基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施(shi)建(jian)設(she)更(geng)是(shi)鋪(pu)天(tian)蓋(gai)地(di)，大(da)有(you)將(jiang)全(quan)國(guo)都(dou)變(bian)成(cheng)工(gong)地(di)之(zhi)勢(shi)。這(zhe)也(ye)難(nan)怪(guai)
，在(zai)現(xian)行(xing)政(zheng)績(ji)考(kao)核(he)體(ti)係(xi)不(bu)變(bian)的(de)情(qing)勢(shi)下(xia)，指(zhi)望(wang)各(ge)級(ji)各(ge)地(di)政(zheng)府(fu)在(zai)保(bao)增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)同(tong)時(shi)
，將(jiang)經(jing)濟(ji)轉(zhuan)型(xing)這(zhe)個(ge)係(xi)統(tong)而(er)又(you)複(fu)雜(za)的(de)命(ming)題(ti)作(zuo)為(wei)政(zheng)策(ce)優(you)先(xian)項(xiang)，實(shi)在(zai)有(you)點(dian)不(bu)現(xian)實(shi)。因(yin)此(ci)，需(xu)要(yao)反(fan)思(si)的(de)是(shi)既(ji)有(you)政(zheng)策(ce)的(de)執(zhi)行(xing)力(li)，更(geng)需(xu)要(yao)改(gai)變(bian)的(de)束(shu)縛(fu)地(di)方(fang)官(guan)員(yuan)手(shou)腳(jiao)的(de)政(zheng)績(ji)考(kao)核(he)體(ti)係(xi)。
　　conggeguojingjitiaokongyujingjifazhanshilaikan
，caizhengyuhuobizhengceshizuinanbawode。zhengcedechufadianjiyaocujinjingjizengchang，youyaobaochijiegoujunheng，youqishiminshengzuiweiguanzhudejiuyeyutongzhangwenti
，shicaijingguanyuanpofeisiliangde。ercongmuqiandecaizhenghehuobizhengcezhixingxiaoguolaikan，xuyaogaibiandebushizhengcefangzhen，ershitoufangdejiegouyijitiaokongyishu。bizherenwei，yinggaizaihangshizhongguojingjifusujichudeqingshixia，zhelitizhenshitijingji，qieshijiantaozhengcezhixingguochengzhongdeyixiepianli，bingzaijingjijibenmianwenguzhihoushishiweitiaocaihuozhengce。